Philosophy and formalization of Integrated Assessment for Decision Support applied to water management project GLOWA-Elbe

摘要

This paper presents a specific language calculus, which is dedicated to organize integrated assessment for very complex systems. In particular, it can be applied to unfold a way towards optimal solutions even for intricate problems concerning those systems. An algorithm of this kind is demonstrated for an example, where the system is a sub-region of a river basin, and the problem is a possible deterioration of the water quality and quantity conditions under Global change. In order to realize a language with such properties, about 20 strictly defined basic semantic categories are introduced Concurrently, their mutual dependence is stated in a logically consistent way. The result is a framework, which can be flexible used for well-organized problem solving while passing through a procedure or algorithm that identifies and structures all activities, key processes and events being relevant for the current task. The organization of sequence and structure as well as the acquisition and flow of information are guided by an epistemic pattern, which seems to be characteristic for creative processes in general. The calculus serves for the GLOWA-Elbe project as a general tool for investigations. Predominantly, the impacts of anticipated Global change on water availability and demand/supply conflicts in the Elbe river basin are studied. We demonstrate here integrated studies of the mutual dependent water availability and quality conditions in Greater Berlin. The problem-solving algorithm is focused on computer-aided multi-criteria analyses (MCA). The corresponding software system NA1ADE supports the comparison and ranking of predefined management strategies (optimization) as well as equity analyses with respect to concerned interest groups (compromise finding).