MODELING LANDSCAPE SCALE ISSUES IN COASTAL MARSH LOSS WITH THEMATIC MAPPER DATA*

摘要

Accurately assessing the prospects for survival of coastal marshes is difficult in view of the wide possible causes of loss, the large areas involved, and the relatively small parcels on which most research is done. This project examined the probability of conversion of marsh surface parcels to open water as a function of five factors: distance from roadways, distance from tidal creeks, distance from upland areas, 4) distance upstream, and 5) the size of a marsh parcel. These factors are understood to be stand-ins for hydrology, elevation and other factors that are more difficult to measure. Regression analysis revealed that distance from uplands, distance from the nearest tidal creek and distance upstream were highly correlated with marsh loss in both areas. However, the proximity of roads did not show the predicted impact and mid-sized marshes tended to have higher losses than either small or large marshes.