Response of the distribution of forest constructive species of northeastern China to the climate changing

摘要

Global Climate Model, CGCM2 predicted that annual average temperature of northeastern China will rise about 3 in 2050 year, and about 6 in 2100 year, annual precipitation will change. To explore the response of Northeastern forests to the climate warming scenarios, Logistic regression models were developed to analyze the relationships between seven constructive species of northeast forest (Larix gmelinii, Pinus koraiensis, Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepis, Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis, Quercus mongolica, Betula platyphylla) and 11 environmental variables (annual average temperature, annual precipitation, altitude, slope, aspect, soil clay, soil silty, soil sand, soil depth, soil organic matter, soil total nitrogen). The predicted distributions of the seven species under the two global warming scenarios were derived on the logistic regression models. The result showed that in 2050, the coverage of all species would decrease in different degree, respectively. The Picea jezoensis, Abies nephrolepis would disappear. in 2100, another two species, Larix gmelinii, Pinus koraiensis would disappear. In whole, the climate warming could have great impact on the constructive species of northeast forest.