Demand supply analysis of China's water resources and its sustainable utilization in the first half of the 21st century

摘要

With the increase of water demand for population growth, rapid industrialization and urbanization, water resources have become one of main inhibitive factors to China's sustainable development. In this paper, the situation of water supply-use during 1980-2004 was reviewed briefly. According to the upward growing trend of water supply-use in the past two decades, the situations of water demand-supply in 2020 and 2050 were predicted and analyzed based on the targets of China's socio-economic development. The results showed that the total water demand would be 699.1 billion m~3 in 2020 and 740.4 billion m~3 in 2050 respectively, while the water supply would just be 601.0 billion m~3 in 2020 and 698.0 billion m~3 in 2050. It indicated that China had to overcome serious water shortage in a short-term future. For the sustainable utilization of water resources in China, some strategies, such as decreasing water use, raising water supply capacity, perfecting water resources management and controlling water pollution, were proposed.