First-Mover Advantages Impacting Site Occupation Timing and Methodology by Commercial Lunar Resource Firms

摘要

Research concerning the advantages and disadvantages accruing to first-movers in multiple industries and endeavors indicates that first movers face multiple challenges in their quest to be "first to market". However, a general conclusion regarding the net sum of advantages and disadvantages cannot be made as the specific circumstances surrounding each case study are generally unique to an industry, a market, or a time period. The nascent lunar commercial resource industry is one such unique case. But for even traditional terrestrial industries, the market entry decision making process gives great weight to two factors which take on even more importance within the context of lunar resource site selection and its impact on the firm's potential competitive advantage: access to scarce resources and/or real estate. With these factors in mind, the evolving law regarding space resource collection operations by private firms would seem to suggest that firms who wish to maximize their competitive advantage should move early. This conclusion is supported by provisions of the Outer Space Treaty which seem to suggest that, while no entity can "own" extraterrestrial real estate, they can use its resources. Critically, the Treaty's Article IX also suggests protecting the user of the real estate from interference by others. Thus, considering that the most optimal lunar resource collection site will need to possess a unique combination of several rare features (nearly constant sunlight in close proximity to permanently shadowed areas near viable concentrations of ore with a short and obstacle free route of travel to the ore bed), early occupation of the most optimal site may provide a critical and non-imitable long term competitive advantage to the firm able to move first. As such, this paper will explore how these factors might impact decisions regarding the strategic timing of market entry and/or initial site occupation of nascent resource collection firms. Finally, once a firm d