The Science and Testing Behind Quantitative Risk Assessment Models

摘要

In a quantitative risk assessment (QRA), the ability to accurately model real-world situations is obviously critical. In the end, the model must be able to represent the effects produced by the detonation of the donor and the consequences on the target. The science that goes into such a model must be carefully thought-out and based on as much data as possible. In a high-explosive (HE) event, the effects that must be considered are the blast wave, the debris, and the thermal environment created by the donor item (material, article, or weapon). The consequences to the target, which is normally a human but could also be other vulnerable assets, include not only the direct results of the HE effects, but also the response of the structure where the target is located. The glass hazard and building collapse are the key facets of this structural response. The algorithms that form a model of an HE event are based on physics, certainly, but are anchored whenever possible by test and/or accident data. Although a wealth of test data already exists, new test programs are underway that will supply important information for use in models. The data from a test or accident can also be used to check the predictions of the model and point out areas for improvement.