CALCULATION OF INDIRECT LOSSES FOR THE RISK ANALYSIS OF AN OFFSHORE OIL COMPLEX IN MEXICO

摘要

Indirect losses result from the economical disruption after a catastrophic event destroys most of the production facilities of a certain industry, as a consequence other economic sectors may be affected. The magnitude of these losses depends on importance of the economic links between the sectors and on the elapsed time before all the economical activities of all sectors are restarted. The model is adapted after the Leontief Input-Output representation and actual figures of the Mexican economy are used to estimate the level of the economical disruption that would occur by assuming that a hurricane provokes the collapse of an oil complex in Mexico. This calculation may be used to generate redundancy measures capable to mitigate the risk exposure of the national economy regarding the potential occurrence of powerful hurricanes on the offshore oil production area of Mexico.