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Bayesian analysis of transmission dynamics of experimental epidemics

机译:实验性流行病传输动态的贝叶斯分析

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We analyse data from two foot-and-mouth disease experiments for which previous studies have indicated lower levels of virus in the blood of sheep infected in the later stages of the epidemic. By using a non-Markovian stochastic compartmental model in a Bayesian approach, coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we are able to relax earlier assumptions regarding possible pathways of infection, and to use the data to reconstruct the infectious network. Thus, the complex interactions among level of viraemia, individual infectiousness and temporal position in the epidemic process can be investigated.
机译:我们分析来自两只脚口病实验的数据,其中先前的研究表明在流行的后期阶段感染的绵羊血液中的病毒较低。通过在贝叶斯方法中使用非马洛维亚随机分区模型,与马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗技术相结合,我们能够在有关感染的可能途径上释放早期假设,并使用数据重建传染网络。因此,可以研究病毒血症水平,疫情过程中的患病水平之间的复杂相互作用。

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