Lock-ins and Vested Interests that Hamper Transition to Hydrogen-Based Energy Futures

摘要

Many speak of hydrogen as the ultimate fuel. They may be right, but how do we get there? Thechangeover to sustainable supply of energy is disappointingly slow. The new has to be phasedin while at the same time the old must be phased out. This is J. A. Schumpeter's famous"creative destruction". However, stakeholders tend to defend their interests. Introduction ofsomething new becomes easier when what is to be replaced, departs in ways acceptable to bothinvestors and operators/workers. Investments already performed must be handled differentlyfrom investments to be made.Furthermore hydrogen is just an energy carrier, so where do we get the energy in the first place?Renewable energy sources are getting more promising each year and installed capacity israpidly increasing. In this setting hydrogen competes with several possible alternatives formatching stochastic variation in production from wind- and sun-based systems, to consumptionthat also varies. The introduction of stochastics in supply leads to the following: as newcapacity is added, fewer operation hours become available to carry fixed costs for existingthermal power plants, while these, due to the introduced stochastics, are still required asstand-by. This is yet another financial barrier as described above, and seems to beunderestimated by people wanting to move towards a sustainable society as soon as possible.Even more critical, and hard to bring into the discussion on how to develop a sustainablesociety, is the following issue: the activities that most people agree are polluting and degradeour environment, are provided by companies that rely for their income and existence on exactlythese activities. The protection of these investments appears as a serious stumbling block tochange. However, investments adapted to sustainable change, create win-win situations andopen new business opportunities. This looks like a highway for faster transition tosustainability.Based in two newly completed PhD studies regarding dynamic analysis of systems withrenewable energy sources, these questions are examined. The results indicate what can be doneto meet these challenges, and are also important for strategic positioning in industry to reducesunk cost in changing markets.