The following proposes a taxonomy of group structures and a framework for inferring potential group behaviors which incorporates cultural influences and filters and situational factors. It draws on the concepts of Alexander George's Operational Codes and Icek Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior, modified for application to groups, and is based upon three premises. The first is that when individuals join together in groups, the group develops a culture of its own which, although derivative of the larger social culture from which the members come, is different in certain ways which can be observed, and which can provide indicators of preferred behaviors. The second is that the types of groups with which the Department of State and the military most often come into contact in an operational context are finite and can be modeled. The third premise is that the theoretical basis for analyzing these identifiable groups already exists, but that no one theory completely serves to answer the critical questions and provide the decision maker with highly probable adversary courses of action upon which he can base his planning. The utility of this taxonomy is that as a group comes to a decision maker's attention, analysts can apply the model to develop a rough idea of "who" these people are. As more data is collected, the "image" of the group is refined, and the model adjusted. Then, by applying certain concepts to the model, preferred behaviors of the group (a form of "What are they going to do next?") can be inferred. Once these are identified, the decision maker can utilize the tools and assets available to him to either thwart behavior he does not desire, or induce a preferred behavior at a time and place of the decision maker's choosing. If nothing else, he may be able to throw the adversary off his game plan, thereby creating a psychological imbalance and an opportunity to gain the initiative.
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