A launch vehicle risk projection analysis is discussed, which produces an estimation of reliability and failure risk for future launch vehicle designs. The estimation is based on what is known at a given time about the vehicle configurations, their launch manifest, and the heritage of the major components that make up each configuration, including the actual flight record of such components in earlier launch vehicle families. The approach produces an initial risk projection for a new launch vehicle family and its subsequent evolution in time. The latter can be based on the "mix" of vehicle configurations that appear in a vehicle family launch manifest and the record of launches of each configuration, as they occur in time.
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