Accident Risks in the Energy Sector: Comparison of Damage Indicators and External Costs

摘要

The overall conclusions are as follows: 1. Comprehensive historical experience of energy-related severe accidents is available and can be used as a basis for quantifying the corresponding damages and external costs. Small accidents are strongly underreported but their contribution to external costs appears to be quite small. 2. Energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries. 3. Hydro power in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone. 4. Expected fatality rates are lowest for western hydropower and nuclear power plants. This results in low associated external costs. However, the maximum credible consequences are very large. The corresponding risk valuation is subject to stakeholder value judgments and can be pursued in multi-criteria decision analysis. 5. The damages caused by severe accidents in the energy sector are substantial but quite small compared to those caused by natural disasters. External costs associated with severe accidents are rather insignificant when compared to the external costs of air pollution.