SHORT-TERM RAINFALL-RUNOFF PREDICTION WITH WEATHER RADAR AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

摘要

A stochastic rainfall pattern simulation capable of generating input for a distributed rainfall-runoff model is developed to facilitate a short-term probabilistic prediction of river discharge at multiple locations in a watershed. Generation of rainfall patterns over a 6-hour period is achieved using a translation vector rainfall prediction process modified to account for uncertainties in rainfall pattern development. The estimation of a time series model capable of describing the translation and growth-decay properties of rainfall patterns for a typhoon event is described. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models are fitted to the related parameters and a simulation is conducted demonstrating the generation of future rainfall patterns. Finally, these patterns are input into a distributed rainfall-runoff model in order to stochastically generate discharge at each reference point within a watershed.