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DEVELOPMENT OF A COST-BENEFIT MODEL FOR INSPECTION OF OFFSHORE JACKET STRUCTURES IN MEXICO

机译:墨西哥海上夹克结构检查成本效益模型的开发

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Planning of inspections is an important task for optimal maintenance of a jacket platform system, and the current practice has been based mostly on judgment and experience. Given the limited resources available for maintenance, there is a growing interest of PEMEX in the optimization of inspection strategies. In order to make easier and more practical the determination of the inspection strategies, in this work, it is assumed that inspections are performed at a constant time interval. A strategy is formulated so that the elements with larger failure probability have priority over other components in the inspection schedule. In this paper, the areas most prone to be damaged are identified, the frequency of damage as a function of its depth in a platform is studied, the levels of damage on joints and elements are identified to define the levels of repair, and the importance of each element is selected according to its capacity to contribute on the base shear resistance of the platform. In addition, a fatigue analysis of the platform is performed to identify the joints most prone to be cracked by fatigue, and to estimate the evolution of damage, where limits in measures for crack magnitude are found and a uniform probability distribution for crack magnitudes on joints are proposed. Several inspection intervals are proposed, their corresponding life-cycle costs are estimated and the optimal schedule is chosen so that the expected life-cycle cost is minimized. The expected costs associated with the no failure event include the costs of inspection and repair whereas the expected failure costs involve the potential consequences of damaged equipment, cost associated with the pollution by crude oil, injuries, cost of avoiding the loss of life, deferred production and indirect loss. In this paper, indirect losses are estimated through an assessment based on the concepts of the Leontief's input-output model. In addition, relationships between each item costs and the global damage index are proposed. As before mentioned, the optimal inspection schedule corresponds to the minimum life-cycle cost.
机译:检查的规划是夹克平台系统最佳维护的重要任务,目前的实践主要是基于判断和经验。鉴于可用于维护的有限资源,在优化检查策略中,Pemex越来越令人越来越兴趣。为了使检验策略更容易和更实际的确定,在这项工作中,假设检查在恒定的时间间隔中进行检查。制定了一种策略,使得具有较大故障概率的元素优先于检查时间表中的其他组件。在本文中,识别出最容易损坏的区域,研究了损坏的频率作为其平台中的深度的函数,识别关节和元素的损坏水平以定义维修水平和重要性根据其能力选择每个元素,以促进平台的基剪剪切电阻。此外,进行平台的疲劳分析以识别最容易被疲劳破裂的关节,并估计损坏的演变,发现裂缝幅度的措施的限制以及接头裂缝幅度的均匀概率分布提出。提出了几种检查间隔,估计了它们相应的生命周期成本并且选择了最佳时间表,使得预期的生命周期成本最小化。与无故障事件相关的预期成本包括检验和修理的成本,而预期的失效成本涉及受损设备的潜在后果,与原油,伤害,避免生命损失的成本相关的成本,避免生命损失,延迟生产和间接损失。在本文中,通过基于Leontief的输入输出模型的概念的评估估算间接损失。此外,提出了每个项目成本与全局伤害指数之间的关系。如前所述,最佳检查时间表对应于最低生命周期成本。

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