Modeling the Human Decision Making Process in Maritime Interdiction Using Conceptual Blending Theory

摘要

This paper describes a model of the human decision-making process in maritime interdiction tactical operation using conceptual blending theory (CBT) and software blending mechanism. CBT explains how humans think using blending operations on mental spaces. This paper uses CBT to model Boyd's Observation-Orientation- Decision-Act Loop Theory, a mental process used by military commanders to make decisions. The software blending mechanism is implemented using the Naval Postgraduate School's first-generation Software Blending library. Military expert's experiences were captured using a similar strategy implemented in the threat assessment model created by Liebhaber and Feher. Probability Estimates of Event (PEoE) is used to represent the significant of each possible tactic used by potential threats. Several PEoE are used to represent the mental patterns for recognizing a threat situation. Finally, decisions are derived using linear assignment, an optimality approach that considers threat attack probability, goals and interdiction resource effectiveness. The model was tested in a simulated maritime threat environment in order to evaluate its ability to coordinate interdictions by patrol crafts. These test results were reviewed by experienced naval warfare officers who gave feedback on the quality of the software generated decisions.