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RELATIVE ANALYSIS AND FUTURE PREDICTION ON RURAL HOUSEHOLD BIOFUELS CONSUMPTION IN CHINA

机译:中国农村家用生物燃料消费的相对分析与未来预测

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This paper carries out the related analysis on the rural household biofuels consumption in term of province and region respectively through the history statistics from 1991 to 1999 by the gray related analysis which can handle with the time series, and obtained the related degrees and related polarities of four main factors affecting the rural household biofuels consumption in China. The related results show that these four factors are closely related to then rural biofuels consumption. Of these, the population and food area per rural household have positive related polarities and the income and education situation of laborers per household have negative Ones. The future total rural household biofuels consumption in China will decline (6032 PJ and 3388 PJ in 1999 and 2020 respectively). These indicate that the rural household energy consumption will enter into a new stage in which the biofuels will be gradually replaced by the other kinds of energy such as coal, gas, LPG and electricity, etc. which are high-quality energy with improvement of living level and educational level in rural area.
机译:本文通过1991年至1999年的历史统计分别通过1991年至1999年的历史统计,通过时间序列处理的历史统计,从而实现了与时间序列的灰色相关分析,获得了相关学位和相关极性的历史统计数据影响中国农村家庭生物燃料消费的四个主要因素。相关结果表明,这四种因素与农村生物燃料消费密切相关。其中,每家农村家庭的人口和食物面积具有积极的相关性极化,每户劳动力的收入和教育状况有消极的极性。未来中国的农村家庭食品消费量将下降(分别为1999年和2020年的6032 PJ和3388 PJ)。这些表明,农村家庭能源消耗将进入一个新的阶段,其中生物燃料将逐渐被其他类型的能源逐渐取代,如煤炭,天然气,液化石油气和电力等,这些能源等都是具有改善的高质量能源农村地区的水平与教育水平。

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