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Using System Dynamics to investigate the Egyptian Economy

机译:利用系统动态调查埃及经济

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Accelerating economic, technological, social and environmental change challenges with multiple feedback effects, long time delays, and non-linearly responses to management decisions set severe challenges for governments in order to design and manage such increasingly complex systems. Effective design, management and learning in such environments require methods for understanding and managing dynamic complexity (3). This research takes a typical area of complexity and examines the role of commercial banks in the Egyptian economy. The main contribution, in this study is to use the system dynamics methodology to study the problem. This is the first time that such a study has been attempted. There has been an extensive data gathering exercise and so all data used will be real data. Several linked models dealing with different sectors have been built and they will be used to examine different scenarios. In doing so, it is hoped that a realistic strategy for helping the Egyptian economy may emerge.
机译:加速经济,技术,社会和环境变革,具有多种反馈效果,长期延误和对管理决策的非线性反应,为政府制定了严峻挑战,以设计和管理这种日益复杂的系统。在此类环境中的有效设计,管理和学习需要方法以了解和管理动态复杂性(3)。这项研究占据了典型的复杂性,并探讨了商业银行在埃及经济中的作用。主要贡献,本研究是使用系统动态方法来研究问题。这是第一次尝试过这样的研究。有一个广泛的数据收集练习,因此所使用的所有数据都将是真实数据。已经建立了几种处理不同扇区的联系模型,并将用于检查不同的场景。这样做,希望能够涌现帮助埃及经济的现实战略。

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