Using Monte-Carlo Simulation for Risk Assessment: Application to Occupational Exposure during Remediation Works

摘要

The aim of this study was to apply the Monte-Carlo techniques to develop a probabilistic risk assessment. The risk resulting from the occupational exposure during the remediation activities of a uranium tailings disposal, in an abandoned uranium mining site, was assessed. A hypothetical exposure scenario was developed and two different pathways were compared: internal exposure through radon inhalation and external through gamma irradiation from the contaminated tailings material. The input variables, such as the inhalation rate and the external exposure parameters, were considered as specific probabilistic distributions, each one characterized by its central tendency and dispersion parameters. Using the cumulative distribution function, a probabilistic value for each variable can be generated using a single random number. Thus, this methodology allows performing a probabilistic risk assessment generating a risk distribution.