Management of the Volga River Water Resource System under Global Climate Change

摘要

The paper presents results of the investigation of operation of the Volga River water-resource system for three different scenarios of climate change - one involving a decrease in the Volga River runoff in the foreseeable future and another two involving a runoff increase. A simulation model is briefly described, which was used in assessing the effect of climate changes on the system output. Probabilistic estimates of possible consequences of changes in the hydrological regime for the volume and reliability of the yield of the water -resource system, including ecological water releases to the lower Volga, are given. New rules for the operation of the water - resource system under these circumstances have been discussed.