Futuring the next industrial revolution

摘要

Systems change. They mature, grow, and evolve over time. How they change is not random. Major system changes may be modeled by a series of S-shaped curves, each initiated by a structural crisis that follow specific laws and lines of evolution. This paper utilized the methodology of TRJZ (a quality/innovation tool named from the Russian acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving") to understand past evolutionary trends in automotive history, and applied principles of TRJZ Directed Evolution to predict the nature of the next industrial revolution. From a TRIZ perspective, the next system evolution in the automobile industry will be associated with a structural shift to an "E-Paradigm," where "E" stand for: Environment, Electronic communication, and Energy. Strategies associated with accelerating and directing this evolution to gain competitive advantage are discussed.