Risk Management Decision Making: The Human Factors Approach

摘要

Based on the survey results, we posit the following conclusions: 1. It would appear that a significant percentage of risk decision makers used their intuition, judgment and experience as an important step in making their final decisions. 2. The human factor in risk management decision making pertains primarily to: (1) Judgment in the risk estimation process (e.g., defining the boundaries of the analysis, assumptions, quality of evidence). (2) Judgment in the review of the risk estimation by the decision maker and other stakeholders (3) Intuitive analysis of the context of the risk decision (e.g., risk acceptability, long term implications, etc.) 3. Some decision makers try very hard to eliminate their intuition or that of their team, out of the total process entirely. They believe that it incorrectly biases the end result. 4. We believe that intuition and judgment are necessary elements of decision making and must be handled in an open and transparent manner for truly effective decision making. 5. The compilation of factors to improve both scientific and intuitive aspects of risk management decision making provide wide-ranging advice on how to get the most out of the human factors (intuition, judgment, experience). We believe this list would be extremely useful in training for risk managers who want to enhance their ability to make sound decisions and evaluate both analytic risk assessment results and the human factor they bring to the decision. 6. Additional research is needed to develop a more comprehensive list of human factors for consideration in risk management decision making, and to provide guidance for their use.