The global nuclear futures model-a dynamic simulation tool for energy strategies

摘要

The Global Nuclear Futures Model (GNFM) is a dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global nuclear materials management, and nuclear proliferation risk. It links nuclear energy and other energy shares dynamically to greenhouse gas emissions and twelve other measures of environmental impact. It presents historical data from 1990 to 2000 and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. More specifically, it contains separate modules for energy, the nuclear fuel cycle front end, the nuclear fuel cycle back end, defense nuclear materials, environmental impacts, and measures of the potential for nuclear proliferation. It is globally integrated but also breaks out five regions of the world so that environmental impacts and nuclear proliferation concerns can be evaluated on a regional basis. The five regions are the United States of America (USA), The Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the OECD nations excluding the USA, and the rest of the world (ROW).