Modelling hierarchical planning process using a simulation-optimization system to anticipate the long-term impact of operational level silvicultural flexibility

摘要

Hierarchical approach is used for forest management planning as opposed to a monolithic approach for its capability to better handle such a complex problem. However, in the approach, certain decisions are fixed at upper hierarchies and enforced upon operational level managers. The approach debilitates supply chains faced with uncertainty in both supply and demand. This study proposes an approach to provide greater flexibility to operational level managers and a mechanism to anticipate its impact on the upper level plans. Application of the approach to a case-study demonstrated that profit improvements of 2-4% can be realized without an impact on upper level constraints.