MODELLING OF THE CO-INFECTION DYNAMICS OF HIV-1 AND MYCOBACTERIUM TUBERCULOSIS

摘要

Studies showing the dynamic behaviour of individual diseases in the human body are rife. A co-infection model of HIV-1 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis is proposed to indicate the interaction between these two diseases with the goal of clarifying the progression of pathogen and cell counts in infected individuals. Such simulations would provide a means for further, well-founded investigation into appropriate treatment strategies. One previous such model developed by Kirschner is used to obtain a nominal parameter set. Furthermore, the nominal set is then used in conjunction with real-world samples provided by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South-Africa, to solidify the credibility of the model in the practical case. This is achieved via well-structured simulations and employs parameter estimation techniques, namely the Nelder-Mead cost-function method. Identifiability of the model is done to indicate whether all the parameters can be determined from the measured outputs. Once the model is sufficiently verified through simulation, conclusions drawn from this study include the result that the treatment of M. tuberculosis doesn't affect the course of HIV-1 progression that much, and that the model fits well to the data gained from Southern-African individuals.