Local forest fire weather occurrence index for Galicia (Spain)

摘要

In this communication is presented one of the most important components of the expert system for prediction of the forest fire danger in Galicia that we have been developing in the last 3 years, I.e., the weather index used to predict the forest fire occurrences. One of the more important news in this index is the possibility to be evaluated in squares of 10 Km x 10 Km allowing to take full advantage of the more detailed spatial information we have in the databases where the forest fires occurred in Galicia are registered. First, we comment in few words the motivation to realize this research and how the occurrence index was obtained, including some explanations about the necessity to interpolate and extrapolate meteorological data. Then, we make a summary of the results obtained when predicting forest fires occurrences in Galicia, first, in the full period used to develop the index and after that, a year to year analysis is used to compare the results obtained in the year 2000, not used to develop the index, with the results obtained in the different years of the period used to develop the index. This allows us to know about the possibilities of using the index in years out of the period with which data the index was developed, that is, to predict forest fire in the future.