The estimation of the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosion based on historical accident analysis

摘要

This paper discusses the method for estimating the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions in fixed installations. It enables the estimation of the maximum probable number of fatalities and the probability of certain range of fatalities. The analysis is based on the accumulated data of amount of explosible material involved in accidents occurred previously and the historical analysis of accidents. The data adopted in the paper are recorded in the MHIDAS (Major Hazard Incident Data Service) database up to January 1999 OSH (Occupational Safety and Health). According to the type of collected data, the number of fatalities derived in accidents is not only due to the overpressure of shock waves, but also due to the missile impact, poisoning and suffocation etc.