The AAQFS is routinely providing high spatial resolution air quality forecasts for guidance for the EPAs in Melbourne and Sydney. Case studies of photochemical smog events in Melbourne and Sydney have given encouraging agreement with observations. Meteorologically the two airsheds present different challenges: in Melbourne it is important to predict the onset and strength of the Port Phillip Bay breeze and the Bass Strait sea breeze; in Sydney is it important to predict the onset and strength of the Tasman sea breeze, the pollution plume trajectory for flow over complex terrain and the effects of local photochemical smog production and inter-regional transport. In the case studied for Sydney there was an additional complication of a synoptic-scale wind surge called the Southerly Buster. For both airsheds, the interaction between synoptic-scale forcing and mesoscale circulations can strongly influence the characteristics of an air pollution event and thus the meteorological model must be able to accurately simulate these interactions. In general, the LCC photochemical mechanism gave better predictions of the 1-hour ozone peak than the GRS mechanism. Improvements to the GRS mechanism and emissions inventory and online modelling of emissions and photochemistry are being developed and implemented. Work on the meteorological model to improve surface winds, soil moisture analysis and boundary-layer height also continues. We have yet to establish the limits of predictability of the system.
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