A Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methodologies for Land Use Planning

摘要

Quantitative Risk Assessment has come to be used in a systematic fashion for land use planning purposes. Some countries have developed officially approved QRA methodologies to support the planning process. Unfortunately, some counter intuitive examples arise in the application of these methodologies, where the decisions turned out to depend more on weakness in methodology than on the physics and statistics of plant accidents. Because of this, a concerted effort was made to provide a QRA methodology which could produce consistent and reproducible results, in agreement with actual accident statistics. As an alternative, deterministic land use planning criteria were developed.