Optimal Instants Of Capital Account Liberalization, Perspective From The Outbound Portfolio Investment And Loan Flowing

摘要

Based on the background of the post international financial crisis, related study whether the impacts of different type capital account liberalization on the financial instability is significant and how to choose the optimal instants of the openness implementation is much more valuable. In this paper, we will analyze the influence of the outbound portfolio investment and loan flowing liberalization on the financial instability. Subsequently, we introduce the switch system optimal control model to simulate the optimal instants of the related liberalization in China. The results show that the outbound portfolio investment liberalization will directly lead to reduce the financial instability in low degree openness economies and will increase the risks in high degree openness economies. The loan flowing liberalization will lead to increase the financial instability and the worsening impact on the low degree liberalization economies is much higher. Ensuring the premise of domestic financial stability, the optimal instant of China outbound portfolio investment liberalization should be located from January to the end of February 2016, while the optimal instant of the loan flowing liberalization will be promoted from July to September 2011.