Panel: Expert systems: How far can they go?

摘要

We arc in the midst of a great wave of enthusiasm about the potential for expert systems in every area of human life and work. There is no agreement, however, as to just how much they can do, and where they will run into fundamental limits. The intent of this panel is to present and discuss some basic questions as to what expert systems can really be expected to do: What is the nature of the problem domains in which expert systems are likely to succeed and those in which they will not? Are there domains in which their use might be dangerous? How will their performance compare with that of human experts in the domain? Are there different facets of expertise that are not amenable to programming? How can human and machine expertise best be combined? To what extent can we count on rule-based systems for 'flexibility' in dealing with unexpected situations? How reliable will such systems be in cases where the programmers (or knowledge engineers) did not anticipate significant possibilities? How can a 'knowledge base* be subjected to standards of accountability? Who is responsible for what an expert system contains and what it does?