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Explainable Deep Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series Predictions

机译:解释用于多变量时间序列预测的深度神经网络

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We demonstrate that CNN deep neural networks can not only be used for making predictions based on multivariate time series data, but also for explaining these predictions. This is important for a number of applications where predictions are the basis for decisions and actions. Hence, confidence in the prediction result is crucial. We design a two stage convolutional neural network architecture which uses particular kernel sizes. This allows us to utilise gradient based techniques for generating saliency maps for both the time dimension and the features. These are then used for explaining which features during which time interval are responsible for a given prediction, as well as explaining during which time intervals was the joint contribution of all features most important for that prediction. We demonstrate our approach for predicting the average energy production of photovoltaic power plants and for explaining these predictions.
机译:我们展示CNN深神经网络不仅可以用于基于多变量时间序列数据的预测,而且用于解释这些预测。这对于许多应用程序非常重要,其中预测是决策和动作的基础。因此,对预测结果的置信度至关重要。我们设计了一个使用特定内核大小的两级卷积神经网络架构。这允许我们利用基于梯度的技术来为时间维度和特征产生显着图。然后,这些用于说明该特征在此期间时间间隔对给定预测负责,以及解释在此期间的所有功能对于该预测最重要的所有功能的联合贡献。我们展示了我们预测光伏发电厂的平均能源生产和解释这些预测的方法。

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