Noise abatement considerations have encouraged many airports to select landing runways with moderate tailwind components. In general, any tailwind will increase the risk of accidents during landing, compared to headwind or lower tailwind conditions. 1CAO in effect considers tailwind up to 5 knots to be acceptable as part of normal operations. This raises many questions. For example, what is the basis for this limit, and exactly what is the risk increment in these conditions? Communities affected by aircraft noise may ask whether the limit can be increased. Pilots and passengers concerned about runway excursions may ask whether it should be reduced. A particularly interesting question is whether the risk increment can be offset by extra precautions such as using the longest available runway or accepting tailwind only in dry conditions. This is important for airports trying to balance safety and noise issues, and also for pilots deciding whether to go around in marginal conditions. This paper describes some techniques that can answer questions such as these. It presents an analysis of recent accident data and combines it with results from safety assessment workshops that draw on the expertise of pilots and controllers to show how the components of landing accident risk are affected by tailwind. It gives conclusions in example cases, and considers whether they can be robust against the inevitable uncertainties in the analysis.
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