Analysing transport, land use and the environment in the Stockholm region

摘要

During the first years of the 1990s, the design of a major package programme for investments and management of the transportation infrastructure of the Stockholm region was worked out and was decided. Evaluations of impacts on transportation behaviour, land-use and the environment were conducted using various model systems. This paper gives an overview of the development of the programme (the so called "Dennis package") and of the evaluations of various impacts. The different types of land-use/transport/environment models and their interrelations are outlined. Other related studies of the impacts of various future scenarios on environmental conditions are reported. The Dennis package was eventually abandoned in 1997 and will be only partially completed in terms of road investments and without any cordon road tolls (as can be judged at this moment). Also a major increase of rail capacity is uncertain. We summarise the lessons in terms of: 1. policy developments; 2. impact evaluations; and 3. land-use/transport modelling. The paper concludes by discussing further development of modelling tools for land-use/transport/environment assessments. Integrating advanced models with (or within) geographical information systems, developing simple decision support tools for interactive strategic analyses and combining normative approaches for policy formation and positive approaches for analyses of market responses constitute three examples of such developments.