Development of a Safety Target Achievement Roadmap (STAR) for ATM in Europe using the Integrated Risk Picture (IRP)

摘要

From 2004 to 2006, EUROCONTROL constructed an Integrated Risk Picture (IRP) showing the overall contribution of Air Traffic Management (ATM) to aviation accident risks and highlighting possible interdependencies, so that priorities for safety improvements can be identified in a systematic way. This development has been closely coordinated with, in particular, the FAA within the scope of the FAA/EUROCONTROL Action Plan 15 on Safety. The risk model, which has as its scope gate-to-gate operations, predicts the current and future risks but was not optimized to show the changes in risk between the two time points that are 2005 (baseline) and the implementation date of the future vision for ATM (SESAR in Europe for the Single European Sky implementation and NextGen for the States). The paper presents the methodology for obtaining the safety roadmap for any combination of ATM changes and implementation dates and provides a first instantiation of the methodology to the initial ATM changes identified in the SESAR Concept of Operations. It presents the output from the Safety Roadmap tool that are the overall risk profile, the integrated risk measure and the contribution of each ATM change considering the interactions between the planned changes.