Impacts of Climate Mitigation Policies on Sectoral Distribution Effects and overall Economic Growth in Germany

摘要

This paper describes the macroeconomic impacts of impulses from technological sectoral models for climate protection policies. The analysis was done with ASTRA-D, a System Dynamics model of the German economy, and the time horizon is 2050. We present here the results of this integrated assessment regarding consumption, investments and employment. Included in the assessment are second round effects and effects of energy expenditure changes on intermediate deliveries and price changes of goods and services. The results indicate an acceleration of economic growth; however, shifts in sectoral demand lead to mixed results in employment. We also discuss the financing of additional climate protection investments and their implementation in ASTRA-D and some of the related problems with that. Finally we review the results in the light of some sensitivity tests.