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Is Travel Restriction the Answer to Liberia's Ebola Pandemic?

机译:旅行限制利比里亚埃博拉大流行的答案吗?

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In this project, we model the spread of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Liberia, West Africa using the pandemic model, with population of Liberia at various stages of the disease (susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered) as the stocks, and in relation to various factors that influence the rate of infection of EVD. It is found that travel restriction - the strategy implemented by Liberian government, has not been very effective in curbing the rate of spread of EVD. Modeling this problem using the "Shifting the Burden" archetype, it is shown that the quick-fix to the problem has made it more difficult to achieve the long term goal of eradicating the disease. Finally, we propose to lift the prevalent travel restriction policy and additional measures to further ameliorate the situation, namely increasing government responsiveness to take actions against EVD, implementing the contact tracing system and educating the public. We believe these proposals could help the government to dampen the spread of Ebola virus in the long run. As a school project, this was completed in November 2014 when the Ebola pandemic was still on going.
机译:在这个项目中,我们使用大流行模型在利比里亚的埃博拉病毒病(EVD)的传播,利比里亚人口在疾病的各个阶段(易感,暴露,感染和恢复)作为股票,以及关于影响EVD感染率的各种因素。有人发现,旅行限制 - 利比里亚政府实施的策略在遏制EVD的蔓延率方面并未非常有效。使用“转移负担”原型来建立这个问题,结果表明,对问题的快速修复使得实现消除疾病的长期目标更加困难。最后,我们建议提升普遍的旅行限制政策和额外措施,以进一步改善这种情况,即增加政府对EVD采取行动的响应,实施联系跟踪系统和教育公众。我们相信这些提案可以帮助政府在长期延期中抑制埃博拉病毒的传播。作为一名学校项目,这是在2014年11月完成的,当时埃博拉大流行仍在进行。

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