Investment cycles and their modeling have been under interest of system dynamics from its early days. Most often these cycles are caused by the uncertain profitability expectations involved in the long-term large capital investments as well as delayed manufacturing process of these needed buildings, machines and/or equipment. This paper is concentrated to the investment decisions of new building market of class I A ice-strengthened oil tankers. In the European oil transport market these tankers are required only in the Baltic Sea region, and especially in the oil terminals of Gulf of Finland. The demand for capacity of these special class tankers can be derived from the handling capacity available in the most important Russian oil export terminal, Primorsk. However, in the near future planned capacity enlargements in Primorsk will create additional dynamics for the results. According to the simulation results we argue that terminal capacity could not be used in full scale in the near future, if the use of appropriate ice-strengthened tanker capacity is favored. If this ice-strengthened policy is followed, this class of tankers will face boom in new building market, which is estimated to last at least for next ten years.
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