Investment cycles and their modeling have been under interest of system dynamicsfrom its early days. Most often these cycles are caused by the uncertain profitabilityexpectations involved in the long-term large capital investments as well as delayedmanufacturing process of these needed buildings, machines and/or equipment. Thispaper is concentrated to the investment decisions of newbuilding market of class I Aice-strengthened oil tankers. In the European oil transport market these tankers arerequired only in the Baltic Sea region, and especially in the oil terminals of Gulf ofFinland. The demand for capacity of these special class tankers can be derived fromthe handling capacity available in the most important Russian oil export terminal,Primorsk. However, in the near future planned capacity enlargements in Primorsk willcreate additional dynamics for the results. According to the simulation results weargue that terminal capacity could not be used in full scale in the near future, if the useof appropriate ice-strengthened tanker capacity is favored. If this ice-strengthenedpolicy is followed, this class of tankers will face boom in newbuilding market, whichis estimated to last at least for next ten years.
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