(When) Can Europe Match US' Military Power?

摘要

The Atlantic defence technology gap is substantial and appears to be growing in spite of an apparent political desire to close it. This paper estimates that the US stock of usable military equipment for modern warfare is about five to ten times larger than Europe's. The US military industrial machine is comparably highly efficient; Key indicators show progressive larger gaps compared to Europe the closer one gets to the battlefield. US defence budgets are only about 60% higher than that of the European nations. The US lead on military investment is about 120%, its military R&D beats Europe by 240% resulting in a battlefield "advantage" of more than 480%. A System Dynamics simulation model is built to explore policies for closing this battlefield technology gap. In a base case scenario, this Atlantic divide continues to grow. Three policy tests are then run: First EU defence budgets are increased to US levels; then EU transforms its forces to expeditionary non-conscription units; last European military industry is consolidated combined with a tripling of R&D efforts. Neither policy is successful alone, yet with all three policies combined, the gap is significantly reduced and in about twenty-five years almost closed. The likelihood of such a combined aggressive European defence policy is discussed. It is argued that since the EU favours a softer security strategy, it will not want to bear the combined policy's high economic and political cost. Consequently, the EU will (have to) be content filling the western world's soft power niche.