(When) Can Europe Match US’ Military Power?

摘要

The Atlantic defence technology gap is substantial and appears to be growing in spiteof an apparent political desire to close it. This paper estimates that the US stock ofusable military equipment for modern warfare is about five to ten times larger thanEurope’s. The US military industrial machine is comparably highly efficient; Keyindicators show progressive larger gaps compared to Europe the closer one gets tothe battlefield. US defence budgets are only about 60 % higher than that of theEuropean nations. The US lead on military investment is about 120 %, its militaryR&D beats Europe by 240 % resulting in a battlefield “advantage” of more than480%. A System Dynamics simulation model is built to explore policies for closingthis battlefield technology gap. In a base case scenario, this Atlantic divide continuesto grow. Three policy tests are then run: First EU defence budgets are increased toUS levels; then EU transforms its forces to expeditionary non-conscription units; lastEuropean military industry is consolidated combined with a tripling of R&D efforts.Neither policy is successful alone, yet with all three policies combined, the gap issignificantly reduced and in about twenty-five years almost closed. The likelihood ofsuch a combined aggressive European defence policy is discussed. It is argued thatsince the EU favours a softer security strategy, it will not want to bear the combinedpolicy’s high economic and political cost. Consequently, the EU will (have to) becontent filling the western world’s soft power niche.