Exploring Demographic Shifts: Aging and Migration Exploratory Group Model Specification Simulation

摘要

Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift -(societal) aging- is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis. In Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis, a plethora of uncertainties (pertaining to model structures, functions, scenarios, parameters) are used to generate thousands of plausible transient scenarios. The dynamic complexity of the resulting 'ensemble of future worlds' is analyzed to find robust policies. The national model is used to explore plausible effects on the sustainability of (Dutch) national health and social security systems, the economy, and the housing sector. Deep uncertainty related to the national model was dealt with during an Exploratory Group Model Specification and Simulation workshop by generating and using alternative hypotheses for major uncertainties. Moreover, the global model is used to test the feasibility of the national model in the international context.