A Countdown towards Solar Power at Grid Parity: Policy Analysis Based on the Evolution of Price-Performance

摘要

The price-performance of solar photovoltaic power generation systems seems to be on the verge of reaching grid parity. With this paper we examine first the effect that government sponsored renewable portfolio standard initiatives will have on the true, i.e. total, cost of solar electricity for consumers and second the degree to which the problem of meeting the consumer demand may become more significant once solar component technology reaches parity with conventional sources of electricity generation. The total costs associated with grid parity include the costs of components technologies for power generation, infrastructure expansion, ancillary services, transmission and distribution. The production costs of photovoltaic power generation systems are on track to drop over time, on the other hand the distribution and allied infrastructure costs can increase owing to daily production variation, grid congestion and long distance transmission loads as the demand for solar power grows. We create a dynamic framework based on the evolution of the total cost for assessing a set of policies that will affect the diffusion of solar power technologies.