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The impact of distributioncurve types of component indices in electric power system reliability evaluation

机译:电力系统可靠性评估中分布式组件索引的分布类型的影响

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When using Monte-Carlo simulation approaches for the calculation of reliability indices of electric power systems the probability distributions of the system reliability indices can easily be obtained by simply sampling random values from the input probability distributions assumed for the component reliability parameters. As input data different types of probability distributions of component parameters can be assumed. However, neither the type of the actual probability distribution curves, nor the curve parameters are known as they occur in reality due to the limited number of samples provided by operational statistics. The first part of the paper presents a comparison between different probability distribution approaches and the probability distributions derived from the enhanced VDEW statistics of incidents by using best fit test methods. The second part of the paper presents the results of reliability calculations of a sample system for different input probability distribution functions of the component outage durations.
机译:当使用Monte-Carlo模拟用于计算电力系统可靠性指标时,通过简单地从用于组件可靠性参数假定的输入概率分布的随机值来容易地获得系统可靠性指数的概率分布。作为输入数据,可以假设组件参数的不同类型的概率分布。然而,由于操作统计所提供的有限的样本,因此既不是所知道的实际概率分布曲线的类型,也不是曲线参数。本文的第一部分呈现了通过使用最佳拟合测试方法的不同概率分布方法与引入的事件的增强型Vdew统计的概率分布之间的比较。本文的第二部分介绍了用于组件中断持续时间的不同输入概率分布函数的样本系统的可靠性计算结果。

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