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Forecasting multiple-period freeway link travel times using neural networks with expanded input nodes

机译:使用具有扩展输入节点的神经网络预测多个期间高速公路链路旅行时间

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The ability to The ability to forecast multiple period link travel times is a necessary component of real-time Route Guidance Systems (RGS). This paper examines the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) that incorporate expanded input nodes for this problem. Recent link travel time information is used as the primary input and this information is highly nonlinear which is problematic for conventional ANN. A sinusoidal transformation technique is employed for pre-mapping the input feature (i.e.the recent link travel times) in order to increase the separabiity of the function approximated and hence improve the prediction capabilities of the ANN. Actual link travel times from houston, Texas that were collceted as part of the automatic vehicle identification system of the Houston Transtar system were used as a test bed. The results of the best ANN with expanded input nodes were compared to a conventional ANN, a modular ANN, and other existing link travel time forecasting models including a Kalman filtering technique, an exponential smoothing model, a historical profile, and a real-time profile. It was found that the proposed expanded input neural networks outperformed a conventional ANN and other travel time forecasting models, and gave similar results to those of a modular ANN.
机译:以预测多个周期链接旅行时间的能力,能力是实时路径诱导系统(RGS)的必要组成部分。本文探讨了使用结合了扩展输入节点对于这个问题的人工神经网络(ANN)的。最近路段行程时间信息被用作主要的输入,并且该信息是高度非线性的,其是用于常规ANN问题。为了增加近似函数的separabiity,从而提高ANN的预测能力,采用正弦变换技术对于预映射的输入要素(i.e.the最近链接旅行时间)。从德克萨斯州休斯顿的是被collceted作为休斯敦译星系统的自动车辆识别系统的一部分实际路段旅行时间被用作测试床。最好的人工神经网络具有扩展的输入节点的结果与传统的人工神经网络,模块化神经网络,以及其他现有的路段行程时间预测模型包括卡尔曼滤波技术,指数平滑模型,历史曲线和实时曲线。结果发现,所提出的扩大输入神经网络优于传统的人工神经网络和其他旅行时间预测模型,并给出了相似的结果模块化ANN的。

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