Analysis of Energy Supply Disturbances and Energy Security of Supply in Lithuania

摘要

Lithuanian situation of safety and security of energy supply is quite complicated comparing to other European countries: few countries supply primary energy sources, there aren't networks of gas, oil and electricity to Western Europe, transmission network needs modernization. The main objective of the paper is presentation of the methodological scheme of energy safety and security of supply, which would be well reasoned by scientific methods and would let to solve those problems. The methodology includes the stages: analysis of scenarios of disturbances, economical modeling, reliability modeling of supply systems, and analysis of consequences. Important stage of the work is analysis of energy supply disturbances and evaluating their appearance probabilities. The model of energy disturbances are presented in the article. 110 different energy disturbance scenarios were selected and simulated according to Wilks statistics. The scenarios were evaluated by economical model. There were chosen the most dangerous models and assessed costs of energy system. In the short run Lithuania have to take important decisions – construction of power plants, including NPP, - and this have to be based on estimation of safety and security of energy supply.