The Impact of time uncertainty on the economic planning of programmable automation under uncertainty about future product mix requirements

摘要

This paper is devoted to the development adn analysis of a mathematical programming model for the economic evaluation of new manufacturing tehcnology, which integrates theoretical advances with economically significant characteristics of progrmamable-automated technology. The impact of time uncertainty of anticipating future technical advance upon the adoption of new equipment embodying technological improvements upon the scrapping of old equipment, and upon levels of output for firms whichfocus on new product opportunities when its demand is determinstic has been examined. A monopolistic firm which is assumed to be operating with stationary demand curves over an infinite time horizon with infinitely durable equipment has been considered. Also, it has been assumed that technological improvements were only reflected through more efficient equipment, and the ability to produce an additional product whose demand curve behaved deterministically, where the two possible products belonged to separate product families. Finally, decision rules have been derived, which will enable the decision-maker to determine optimal levels of product nad investment.