LOng Range forecasting: an analysis of forecasts on iformation technology

摘要

Innovation, competition, alliances and mergers are changing the landscape of information technology industry. Forecasting technological trends in such an industry possess a trremendous challenge. An analysis of forecasts perform earlier indicate that there are nine generic forecasts. Problems in each of these categories have been identified. The analysis of earlier forecasts show that the major imperative is to integrate multiple perspectives to eliminate routine biases. Technology have to create and stimulate alternative scenario and analyze the implications of the technological change much more carefully in rapidly changing areas such as information technology.