Tool life prediction for cup shaped cold forgings with fuzzy language risk analysis and fuzzy inference

摘要

A method of Die-life prediction is suggested for cup shaped forgings. Author's theorize that forge specialists can make die-life prediction by comparing a “tagret forging process” with other standard processes whose actual life are known. The authors make comparison by calculation of risk (that which shortens die-life span). Risk is estimated by using a risk tree network, based on information compiled from a survey of forge experts. The risk rate of an “end node” is estimated by a computer-aided forging process planning system. Comparing dimensions of the target and standard forging processes has effect on the risk rate. Once risk is determined, it is used to predict die-life span using Fuzzy inference. The Fuzzy inference rule is estimated based on data received from the interview of experts.