A method is presented which gives an approximate solution to the failure probability of structures subjected to time-variant loads, where the system of loads and structure may have uncertain parameters. The method uses response surface methodology based upon a small number of response time histories in conjunction with the fast integration technique (Wen and Chen, 1987) to provide a limit state formulation that is computationally efficient. The system reliability may then be quickly computed by FORM/SORM or Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect upon the failure probability of changes to the system parameters, which can be important when determining whether uncertainty in a given system parameter is significant. An empirical measure of the accuracy of the response surface approximation is also presented.
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