A proposal for the improvement of the technique of Earned Value Management utilizing the history of performance data

摘要

Although the technique of Earned Value Management-EVM is utilized by several companies in different sectors (software develipment, civil construction, aerospace, aeronautics, among others) for over 35 years, in order to predict time and cost results, many studies such as [13], [24], detected vulnerabilities in the technique, among them: i) the cost performance data did not always show a normal distribution, which makes it hard to obtain reliable projections; (ii) there is instability in the cost and time performance indicators during the Project ([13], [24]); (iii) there is a trend of deterioration in the cost and time indicators when the projects are near their end ([13]), and others. The present studt proposes an extension of this technique, through the integration of the history of performance data as means of improving the technique's cost predicability. The proposed technique is evaluated and compared to the traditional technique through different hypothesis tests, utilizing data from the simulation or real projects. The tecnique showed to be more accurate and precise than the traditional one for the calculation of the Cost Performance Index - CPI and the Estimate At Completion - EAC.